Update: This game has been postponed due to COVID-19 concerns. See more here.
The New Orleans Pelicans aim to right the ship on Monday evening with a difficult road matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. New Orleans enters on a three-game losing streak with losses to Indiana, Oklahoma City and Charlotte, falling to 4-5 on the season. Dallas is 5-4 through nine games, and the Mavericks are riding a three-game winning streak. Steven Adams (migraine) is listed as questionable for the Pelicans, with the Mavericks battling roster issues as a result of the NBA’s health and safety protocols. Josh Richardson, Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson are among the players in question. Dallas, however, could get Kristaps Porzingis (knee) back in the lineup for the first time this season.
Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Dallas. William Hill Sportsbook lists Dallas as a four-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 214.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds. Before making any Pelicans vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two seasons. Dating back to last season, it is on a stunning 65-36 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Pelicans vs. Mavs. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and betting trends for Mavs vs. Pelicans:
Pelicans vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -4Pelicans vs. Mavericks over-under: 214.5 pointsPelicans vs. Mavericks money line: Mavericks -174; Pelicans +138NO: The Pelicans are 3-6 against the spread in the last nine gamesDAL: The Mavericks are 5-4 against the spread this season
Why the Pelicans can cover
The Pelicans are a deep and talented team with two-way strengths. New Orleans enters the game as the No. 2 defensive rebounding team in the NBA, grabbing 30.6 percent of its own misses, and the Pelicans are also a top-three team in free throw creation. Dallas ranks near the bottom of the league in free throw rate allowed, and the Pelicans should be able to generate shots from the charity stripe.
Defensively, New Orleans is allowing fewer than 1.07 points per possession, a top-eight mark in the NBA, and the Pelicans should benefit from the Mavericks’ lack of offensive rebounding punch. Stan Van Gundy’s team is also a top-10 unit in free throw rate allowed, turnover creation rate (15.2 percent) and steals per game (8.6), with the No. 2 mark in points allowed in the paint at 39.8 per contest.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas topped the league in offensive efficiency during the 2019-20 season and, with much of the roster intact, the Mavs are on pace for another strong offensive showing this year. The Mavericks are scoring 1.12 points per possession in non-garbage time situations, with Luka Doncic leading the way with 26.6 points, 9.3 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game. If Porzingis is able to return on Monday, those team-wide numbers should only improve.
Dallas is an above-average team in true shooting percentage (57.6 percent), and the Mavs also take care of the ball at a top-10 level, committing a turnover on only 13.7 percent of possessions. The Mavericks also maintain a top-three free throw rate offensively, and they have a sharp-shooter in Tim Hardaway Jr., who is averaging 18.4 points per game and converting 43.8 percent of his 3-point attempts this season.
How to make Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total as the simulations are projecting 128 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Pelicans vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Mavericks vs. Pelicans spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.